(March 12, 2004) The state’s unemployment rate is declining, the council notes, while manufacturing, industrial real estate, tourism, agriculture, banking and exports are pressing forward.

View full Economic Advisory Council Report.

“The signs of economic improvement are welcome news and all the more reason for California to get serious about enacting workers’ compensation reform and take other steps to improve the business climate and foster an environment that encourages the job growth we’ve been lacking,” said Chamber Senior Vice President Dave Kilby.

Highlights of the council report include:

• National consumer spending slowed from 6.9 percent to 2.6 in the fourth quarter of last year, but there should be an upswing in the first half of 2004, partly due to the newly implemented tax cuts.
• Californians were more “bullish” than their national counterparts, according to the recent statewide consumer confidence survey conducted by San Jose State University.

The acceleration of world economic growth will have the biggest impact on international trends and California trade. There could as large as a 10 percent growth in California exports in 2004, which will have a direct impact on the state’s overall economic growth for the year.

• Regional economic variation between the northern and southern parts of the state continued through 2003. Riverside-San Bernardino set the pace for job growth, while Santa Clara and San Francisco were still shedding jobs at the end of the year. Sacramento turned out to be a weak spot in 2003, but could see a boost in the coming year with defense spending in the state.
• The tourism industry is strengthening throughout the state and looks for growth in 2004.
• In real estate, the business spending recovery is expected to turn around the industrial sector and warehousing this year, followed by the apartment sector and offices in 2005.

Agriculture is doing better than expected with the exception of the cattle market. Dairy, grape, tomato and nut prices are all up. While other vegetable production was good overall, pricing was generally poor. The full report of the Economic Advisory Council is available at www.calchamber.com.

Staff Contact: Dave Kilby